{"id":495,"date":"2026-03-19T03:26:44","date_gmt":"2026-03-19T03:26:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vesemt.org\/?p=495"},"modified":"2026-03-19T11:40:40","modified_gmt":"2026-03-19T11:40:40","slug":"municipales-2026-anatomie-dun-rapport-de-force-et-autopsie-dune-illusion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vesemt.org\/?p=495","title":{"rendered":"[Premier tour \u00e9lections municipales 2026] :  A SPDC : Anatomie d\u2019un rapport de force\u2026 et autopsie d\u2019une illusion"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">Il est des \u00e9lections locales qui confirment des dynamiques. D\u2019autres qui les infirment.<br \/>\nEt puis il y a Saint-Pierre-des-Corps 2026, qui fait quelque chose de plus subtil :elle donne raison \u00e0 tout le monde\u2026 \u00e0 condition de ne pas trop regarder les chiffres.<\/span><\/p>\n<h1 class=\"western\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">1. Une droite dominante\u2026 mais sans triomphe<\/span><\/h1>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">Commen\u00e7ons par une \u00e9vidence que personne ne conteste vraiment : la droite arrive en t\u00eate.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">Non pas triomphante, non pas imp\u00e9riale, non pas napol\u00e9onienne, juste dynastique \u00e0 l&rsquo;image de sa composition (<a href=\"https:\/\/vesemt.org\/?p=302\">notre analyse l\u00e0 <\/a>) \u2014 plut\u00f4t dans un style gestionnaire, l\u00e9g\u00e8rement en avance, comme un \u00e9l\u00e8ve appliqu\u00e9 qui a r\u00e9vis\u00e9 sans passion.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">Avec un score oscillant autour de 50 %, elle :<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">domine<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">contr\u00f4le la plupart des bureaux<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">mais n\u2019\u00e9crase personne<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">Autrement dit : elle gagne\u2026 sans convaincre totalement. Ce qui, en politique, est souvent suffisant.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"western\"><\/h2>\n<h1 class=\"western\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">2. Une gauche qui progresse\u2026 sur place<\/span><\/h1>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">\u00c0 gauche, en revanche, la situation rel\u00e8ve d\u2019un exercice de haute voltige intellectuelle.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">Car enfin, LFI progresse. Les chiffres le disent. Les courbes le sugg\u00e8rent. Les militants l\u2019affirment avec une ferveur qui forcerait le respect si elle n\u2019\u00e9tait pas l\u00e9g\u00e8rement circulaire.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">Et pourtant\u2026: Le total des voix de gauche, lui, ne bouge pas. (nous\u00a0 devrions dire baisse par rapport aux pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes \u00e9lections, mais ce n&rsquo; est pas le sujet si on veut se projeter uniquement sur le second tour).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">Ou si peu qu\u2019il faudrait un microscope, ou une bonne volont\u00e9 militante, pour y voir une expansion.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">Ainsi :<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">la gauche traditionnelle s\u2019effondre<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">LFI r\u00e9cup\u00e8re l\u2019essentiel de ses pertes<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">et le total reste stable. <\/span>On appelle cela, dans le langage courant, un <strong><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">transfert<\/span><\/strong><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">.. Dans le langage politique, une <\/span><strong><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">dynamique<\/span><\/strong><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">. Dans le langage honn\u00eate, une <\/span><strong><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">redistribution interne<\/span><\/strong><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">Bref, la gauche avance\u2026 en restant au m\u00eame endroit. Un exploit que m\u00eame les tapis roulants des a\u00e9roports n\u2019osent plus proposer.<\/span><\/p>\n<h1 class=\"western\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">3. G\u00e9ographie d\u2019une impuissance organis\u00e9e<br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-496\" src=\"https:\/\/vesemt.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Decoupage-electoral.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\" srcset=\"https:\/\/vesemt.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Decoupage-electoral.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/vesemt.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Decoupage-electoral-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/vesemt.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Decoupage-electoral-768x576.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><br \/>\n<\/span><\/h1>\n<p><strong><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">L\u2019analyse par bureau de vote ajoute une touche presque po\u00e9tique \u00e0 ce tableau<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<table border=\"0\" frame=\"VOID\" rules=\"NONE\" cellspacing=\"0\">\n<colgroup>\n<col width=\"94\" \/>\n<col width=\"94\" \/>\n<col width=\"94\" \/>\n<col width=\"94\" \/>\n<col width=\"94\" \/>\n<col width=\"94\" \/>\n<col width=\"94\" \/>\n<col width=\"94\" \/><\/colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\" width=\"94\" height=\"19\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Bureau<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\" width=\"94\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Inscrits<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\" width=\"94\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Votants<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\" width=\"94\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Exprim\u00e9s<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\" width=\"94\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Olivier CONTE\u00a0 SPA<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\" width=\"94\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Anne BRUNET\u00a0 LO<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\" width=\"94\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Michel SOULAS\u00a0 GUES<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\" width=\"94\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Thomas DELPLACE LFI<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\" height=\"19\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">1<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">948<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">506<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">489<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">278<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">24<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">149<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">38<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\" height=\"19\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">53,38%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">51,58%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">56,85%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">4,91%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">30,47%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">7,77%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\" height=\"19\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">2<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">987<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">452<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">440<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">244<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">9<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">110<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">77<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\" height=\"19\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">45,80%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">44,58%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">55,45%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">2,05%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">25,00%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">17,50%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\" height=\"19\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">3<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">860<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">386<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">370<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">220<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">14<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">105<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">31<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\" height=\"19\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">44,88%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">43,02%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">59,46%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">3,78%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">28,38%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">8,38%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\" height=\"19\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">4<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">817<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">426<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">418<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">198<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">12<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">155<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">53<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\" height=\"19\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">52,14%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">51,16%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">47,37%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">2,87%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">37,08%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">12,68%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\" height=\"19\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">5<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">425<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">169<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">161<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">77<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">9<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">51<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">24<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\" height=\"19\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">39,76%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">37,88%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">47,83%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">5,59%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">31,68%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">14,91%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\" height=\"19\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">6<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">1391<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">772<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">757<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">362<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">13<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">251<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">131<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\" height=\"19\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">55,50%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">54,42%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">47,82%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">1,72%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">33,16%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">17,31%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\" height=\"19\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">7<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">1167<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">691<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">672<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">291<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">20<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">285<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">76<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\" height=\"19\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">59,21%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">57,58%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">43,30%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">2,98%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">42,41%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">11,31%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\" height=\"19\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">8<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">1258<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">720<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">702<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">323<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">13<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">266<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">100<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\" height=\"19\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">57,23%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">55,80%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">46,01%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">1,85%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">37,89%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">14,25%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\" height=\"19\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">9<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">731<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">278<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">273<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">131<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">10<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">80<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">52<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\" height=\"19\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">38,03%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">37,35%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">47,99%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">3,66%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">29,30%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">19,05%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\" height=\"19\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">10<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">871<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">396<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">389<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">206<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">7<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">97<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">79<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\" height=\"19\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">45,46%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">44,66%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">52,96%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">1,80%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">24,94%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">20,31%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\" height=\"19\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">11<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">906<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">314<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">304<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">145<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">17<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">78<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">64<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\" height=\"19\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">34,66%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">33,55%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">47,70%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">5,59%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">25,66%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">21,05%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\" height=\"19\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">&#8212;<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">&#8212;<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">&#8212;<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">&#8212;<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">&#8212;<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">&#8212;<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">&#8212;<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">&#8212;<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\" height=\"19\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">TOTAL<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">10361<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">5110<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">4975<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">2475<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">148<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">1627<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">725<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\" height=\"19\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"LEFT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">49,32%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">48,02%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">49,75%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">2,97%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">32,70%<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"RIGHT\" valign=\"BOTTOM\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">14,57%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"western\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">Bureau 7<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">Le plus favorable \u00e0 la gauche. Elle y atteint environ 45 %. pour les agglom\u00e9r\u00e9s au second tour. Ce qui est remarquable.<br \/>\nEt insuffisant.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"western\"><\/h3>\n<h2 class=\"western\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">Bureaux 4, 5, 8 <\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">Zones dites \u201cinterm\u00e9diaires\u201d. On y trouve :de l\u2019espoir, de la marge et toujours pas de majorit\u00e9<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"western\"><\/h3>\n<h2 class=\"western\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">Bureaux 1, 3, 6, 9, 11<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">La droite y est confortablement install\u00e9e (55\u201360 %). Sans arrogance, mais sans inqui\u00e9tude non plus.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"western\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">Bureaux 2 et 10<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">L\u00e0, la droite ne domine pas. Elle r\u00e8gne. Heureusement, ce sont pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment les endroits o\u00f9 il est inutile d\u2019aller convaincre qui que ce soit.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"western\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\"><b>Conclusion territoriale :<\/b><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">la gauche est pr\u00e9sente partout, majoritaire nulle part, et comp\u00e9titive seulement l\u00e0 o\u00f9 elle perd de peu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">Une strat\u00e9gie d\u2019implantation qui rappelle certains clubs de football courageux mais syst\u00e9matiquement rel\u00e9gu\u00e9s.<\/span><\/p>\n<h1 class=\"western\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">4. Sc\u00e9narios \u00e9lectoraux : le r\u00e9el contre le souhaitable<\/span><\/h1>\n<h2 class=\"western\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">Sc\u00e9nario 1 \u2013 Victoire de la droite (le plus probable)<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">Il suffit de ne rien rater.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">garder les bureaux acquis<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">ne pas s\u2019effondrer ailleurs<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">\u00e9viter les erreurs grossi\u00e8res<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">En somme :<br \/>\nfaire une campagne raisonnable dans un contexte favorable. Autant dire que tout est r\u00e9uni. <\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"western\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">Sc\u00e9nario 2 \u2013 Victoire de la gauche (le plus comment\u00e9)<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">Ici, les choses deviennent int\u00e9ressantes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">Il faut :<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">gagner le bureau 7<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">renverser les bureaux 4, 5 et 8<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">progresser significativement ailleurs<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">Autrement dit : transformer une minorit\u00e9 stable en majorit\u00e9 territoriale.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">C\u2019est faisable. Comme gagner au loto. Mais avec moins de tirages.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"western\"><\/h3>\n<h2 class=\"western\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">Sc\u00e9nario 3 \u2013 \u00c9lection serr\u00e9e<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">C\u2019est le sc\u00e9nario pr\u00e9f\u00e9r\u00e9 des analystes prudents et des candidats optimistes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">Tout peut arriver. Mais rien ne change vraiment.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"western\"><\/h2>\n<h1 class=\"western\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">5. Le r\u00f4le de LFI : moteur\u2026 ou recyclage ?<\/span><\/h1>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">Revenons \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9l\u00e9phant dans la pi\u00e8ce, ou plut\u00f4t \u00e0 l\u2019insoumis dans le bureau.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">LFI progresse, c\u2019est entendu. Mais cette progression repose sur les pertes de la gauche traditionnelle.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">Ce qui signifie :<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">pas de conqu\u00eate ext\u00e9rieure<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">pas d\u2019\u00e9largissement<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">pas de nouvelle base<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">Simplement : un remplacement<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">LFI ne gagne pas des \u00e9lecteurs. Elle change leur \u00e9tiquette.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">C\u2019est efficace.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">C\u2019est visible.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">C\u2019est insuffisant.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h1 class=\"western\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">6. Le paradoxe final<\/span><\/h1>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">Nous avons donc :<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">une droite qui gagne au premier tour sans enthousiasme<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">une gauche qui se transforme sans grandir<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">un territoire o\u00f9 tout change pour que rien ne change vraiment<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">Et au milieu de tout cela, une v\u00e9rit\u00e9 un peu cruelle :<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\"><b>La gauche peut avoir raison politiquement et tort \u00e9lectoralement.<\/b><\/span><\/strong><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\"><b><br \/>\n<\/b><\/span><strong><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\"><b>La droite peut avoir tort politiquement et raison \u00e9lectoralement.<\/b><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\"><b>Ce qui, convenons-en, est d\u2019une grande \u00e9l\u00e9gance d\u00e9mocratique.<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<h1 class=\"western\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">7. Conclusion<\/span><\/h1>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">Si l\u2019on devait r\u00e9sumer la situation :<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">la droite tient<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">la gauche esp\u00e8re<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">LFI remplace<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">et les bureaux de vote, eux, persistent dans leur f\u00e2cheuse habitude de compter les voix plut\u00f4t que les intentions<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\"><br \/>\nEn d\u00e9finitive, la victoire de la droite ne n\u00e9cessite qu\u2019une chose : continuer.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">Celle de la gauche en exige plusieurs :<br \/>\nconvaincre, \u00e9largir, renverser, mobiliser \u2014 et accessoirement, d\u00e9passer 50 %.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\">Ce qui, reconnaissons-le, manque encore l\u00e9g\u00e8rement au programme.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial Narrow, sans-serif;\"><b>Fin de note. Optimisme non fourni.<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Il est des \u00e9lections locales qui confirment des dynamiques. D\u2019autres qui les infirment. Et puis il y a Saint-Pierre-des-Corps 2026,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":508,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-le-quotidien-le-vrai"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vesemt.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/495","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vesemt.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vesemt.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vesemt.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vesemt.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=495"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/vesemt.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/495\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":509,"href":"https:\/\/vesemt.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/495\/revisions\/509"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vesemt.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/508"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vesemt.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=495"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vesemt.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=495"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vesemt.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=495"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}